Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: These is sort of a pyromaniac's fest. They all come out of the woodwork.
[00:00:08] Speaker B: This is the inside scoop Jerusalem, with your host, Nicole Jansesian.
Welcome. Welcome to the Inside Scoop, Jerusalem. I am recording this from the old city of Jerusalem. I'm sitting right across from Zion gate right now, and there are so many people passing by, which is just awesome that people are here in the old city. But before I get into Jerusalem, I just want to take a step back and just tell you a little bit about who am I? I'm going to start with the lyrics of a famous song that you probably heard of. If I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere. It's up to you.
Yeah, you thought I was going to say New York, but no gasp. Old blue eyes got it wrong. I can tell you that after more than two decades of living in this city, the answer is, if I can make it here in Jerusalem, then I can make it anywhere. I mean, these days I go to New York City for vacation. Like to relax. Driving in Manhattan is like a charm compared to driving in Jerusalem. And you know what? I want to wake up in a city that never sleeps. I know it sounds exhausting, but you know what? I'd rather not sleep than not rest. And in Jerusalem, you don't rest. There's no rest for one's weary soul. You got conflict, you got tension. You're always on your guard. Like, even on the checkout at the supermarket, on your guard. You go to New York, and if you didn't sleep, it's because you were partying, you were enjoying life. You had, you know, you had good food, you had fun, but you weren't being contested in your very existence.
Okay, so welcome to this podcast. So I am your host, Nicole Jancis. Jan sis. What? Yeah. So I was born and raised in New York. I'm Italian American. I moved to Jerusalem instead of Italy, though I'm still trying to get to Italy. I married an Armenian who was born and raised in Jerusalem just to confuse matters and the last name. And now I am here to bring all of these complications right to wherever you are listening to this podcast.
And so let me get off my diatribe about Jerusalem getting to the crux of this week's episode, which is Ramadan in Jerusalem. As I'm recording this in 2024, I'm sitting in. This is the focal point of the world, no less at this moment. There's a war going on. Israel, Hamas. There's more than 130 israeli hostages in Gaza.
The figures for the death toll in Gaza. Debate them if you will. 30,000 people dead.
And now to the backdrop of this war looming large. Right in front of us is Ramadan, the holiest month on the islamic calendar and the biggest powder keg for fanatics on either side.
So the biggest conundrum for the israeli government and security establishment as to whether or how to limit worshippers who can get to the al Aqsa mosque. Now, the mosque is located in what Jews refer to as the Temple Mount. It's often a flashpoint for violent clashes, but there is also this thing called the status quo, the religious status quo, which permits jewish and other visitors, but not jewish prayer, only muslim prayer. So my guest for this week said that all of these current events are the perfect storm, a recipe for the perfect storm. So the focal point of the war will move from Gaza to Jerusalem once Ramadan begins. Jerusalem is the hottest city in the world from a political point of view. And it's got the hottest piece of real estate on the planet, which is the al Aqsa Plaza, or the Temple Mount, depending on who calls it what. Just the fact that there are so many different names for it lends credence to this controversy.
The Temple mount is the holy site in Judaism. Al Aqsa is the third holiest site in Islam. It is currently in israeli territory, but it is controlled by an islamic trust run by the hashemite kingdom of Jordan. But it is under the security control of the israeli police, and the israeli government determines the security policies.
Throw in a war and you're screwed. This really complicates Ramadan. This year, everybody was using Ramadan, even US President Joe Biden, as a sort of deadline for coming to a ceasefire agreement. But that does not seem likely at this point. And to make it even more of a concern, Hamas has called its October 7 invasion of Israel, the al Aqsa flood. So they invaded Israel from Gaza, which is in the south, but Jerusalem, al Aqsa, were they planning to get to Jerusalem, or is that what they're aiming to do now?
So Israel is restricted or is still debating how it's going to restrict muslim access to the site.
The israeli army and the israeli internal security is saying that there should not be limitations because that would upset the calm that somehow they've managed to establish since October 7. Hamas leaders, the mysterious spokesman of the Hamas military wing, Abu Aida, actually called on Muslims to show up at the mosque on the first day and to stay there throughout the month of Ramadan.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus minister of national security, Itamar Ben Guvir, actually wanted. He wanted sweeping bans of Muslims from the mosque, like it would include all of east Jerusalem in addition to the West bank in Gaza. Hamas was calling this religious warfare. But the question is, is Hamas actually using this? Are they using the specter of Ramadan and the perceived restrictions, or the actual restrictions? Are they using that, the religious fervor of this holiday to encourage Hezbollah, the Houthis and all the other actors in the region to join their war and to up their game in the war. Some of them are already in it, like Hezbollah. And the Houthis are certainly, they're already part of this.
But how is this pot of reeling going to resolve itself this year?
My guest today is a lawyer whose handle on the platform, formerly known as Twitter, is all things Jerusalem. And that is perfect because that is the point of this podcast. So I can't think of anybody better with whom to speak. Daniel Sineman is an attorney who is concerned with land issues in this city. In our interview, he calls all these elements surrounding the onset of Ramadan the perfect storm that could explode into a regional war. So let's get right into it.
You've written that this is like, this is a deceptive calm that we're seeing. And first of all, I want to know, what do you mean by that?
[00:08:38] Speaker A: Okay, first of all, there's a distinction between the palestinian citizens of Israel and the Palestinians in the West bank. And I am not enormously familiar with the nitty gritty of the Palestinians in the West bank in East Jerusalem. One could have expected, based on a past experience, that there would be open classes between the population and israeli authorities, large protests, extremely extreme sermons by imams on the mount, et cetera, and none of that has materialized. Now, there is a deep affinity between East Jerusalem, East Jerusalemites and Gaza. They're certainly deeply affected by it. And virtually everybody that I know is kind of surprised why it hasn't, you know, this has not erupted into violence.
And I'm not sure that we know the complete answer.
But the main question is, is it really thinkable that there will be a Ramadan against the backdrop of major bloodshed in Gaza and everything will go smoothly? That is the question, because the anticipation is it would not. Now, there are a number of reasons. I don't think that these are exhaustive.
Alex has been quiet, and it's been quiet for a number of reasons. Number one, that the palestinian population in east Jerusalem is subdued, pensive, seething. There's a lot of rage under the surface, there's a general sense. I believe this is not the time for the third intifada, but there is a lot of pent up rage, and there are all sorts of expressions of it.
However, on the mount, the.
The numbers have been down of worshippers, by the way, the number of jewish visitors have also been down, kind of surprisingly. Now, the reasons that the numbers are smaller are a few. Number one, alas, is inaccessible to the west bankers to Jerusalem.
Palestinians and east Jerusalem are allowed access only above the age of 45. Now, it's not always enforced, but it's usually enforced. And there have been clashes, but the clashes have been a few weeks streets away from the old city because the police won't allow access to younger people. And finally, the palestinian citizens of Israel have not been coming.
On normal Fridays, they will arrive in tens of thousands, and you'll see, you know, 2 buses on the Jericho road from the Galilee, from the Negev, and they're not coming.
So the crowds have been low.
You haven't seen large numbers of Hamas flags. The sermons have been, I would say, harsh, but not over the, you know, top, not overblown.
And the police are enforcing something akin to martial law on the streets of East Jerusalem. They're on their best behavior at the gates of al Aqsa.
[00:12:36] Speaker B: The people or the police?
[00:12:38] Speaker A: The police, okay. The police are less aggressive. They are much more aggressive towards the jewish visitors. They will not tolerate any kind of misbehavior.
I've seen no reports of clashes, and I've been getting, on occasion, play by play like a basketball game. You know, there are now 30 people going in here. The police are doing this. This is what the imam is saying and things of that nature.
And that's. That's an indication that Netanyahu took the temple mount away from Benvir and left it in the hands of the prime minister's office. There's no other explanation.
[00:13:18] Speaker B: Wow. Okay. That's so interesting.
[00:13:21] Speaker A: Now, all of that's well and good.
Under normal circumstances of catalyst, the prospect of that continuing under Ramadan is nil, because there are Ramadan rules, and going to al Aqsa is part of that. It's a linchpin of the entire event of the month of Ramadan, climaxing in Laylat al Qadir. And being denied access during Ramadan is huge.
Being denied access at a time when there's massive bloodshed in Gaza is even huger.
And having Benvir stick it to you in order to achieve that is the perfect storm.
So from the very beginning literally from when the war broke out at the highest levels in Washington, in european capitals and in the israeli government. There was a sentence, we don't want to have Ramadan against the backdrop of carnage in Gaza, which is one of the reasons you're seeing the urgency of Biden's push to get a cease fire in Gaza, because it's also said, I believe this to be correct now, that there's nothing more than Iran, Hezbollah and some of Hamas would like to use Ramadan at al Aqsa to trigger a regional war.
And that is something that is feared.
Now, another problem with this is under normal circumstances, you and I wouldn't be hearing about the discussions. I would maybe if I would scratch at my sources and, but, you know, I'm not exactly flavor of the month in Netanyahu government, so my sources aren't great, but the discussions would take place out of the public eye.
I was asked what were the policies in previous years about age limitations, you know, and has scratched my head because there were no age limitations as such.
There were decisions made on an ad hoc operational basis. Things are too tense. We're going to limit access to people above the age of 30. It's just too tense.
[00:16:19] Speaker B: And.
[00:16:22] Speaker A: It was not great, but it was an ad hoc operational decision made on facts and realities on the ground.
You had two weeks ago a meeting of the security forces.
Immediately afterwards, there was a leak, obviously coming from Benver that there are going to be age limitations, that he wants to shut it down for palestinian citizens of Israel, no access to west bankers and something like age limitations in the West bank east, loosely. Nothing like that has ever been done, and it was certainly not done in a triumphalist way. And the goal of this was triumphalism.
[00:17:17] Speaker B: Where does it stand now? Is that what's going through?
[00:17:21] Speaker A: No, no, immediately. And it was leaked that it's not conclusive, but that Netanyahu tends to side with Ben Graham.
This created quite a stir in all sorts of places, especially, but not exclusively among the Palestinians of Israel, because it's been nonviolent society. It has displayed solidarity.
It's clear that palestinian citizens of Israel see October something that happened to us, and this is the reward. I mean, this has never been done before. It was literally an act of humiliation.
Rather immediately, the police backed Benjir, but that's not surprising. But openly, the IDF, the minister of defense, Gallant and the Shabbat all said no.
And Gallant even did so publicly, saying there is nothing that the iranian axis would like more than there to be violence at al Aqsa. The way of making sure that that doesn't happen is maximal access and people should keep their mouths shut, which was a not so subtle hint. In the couple of weeks that followed, Netanyahu held his silence, which in and of itself is outrageous. Until 2017, Netanyahu deserved fairly reasonable grades on the way that he would handle loxi yearly. He became increasingly dismissive of jordanian concerns as times went on. But since 2017, it's not the same person. In the past he was extremely risk averse and today he's completely unexpected. However, the pressure was such, and it's been wall to wall international pressure. You can't do this.
And that was something that was done quietly, that the night before last the decision fell and she went on camera even and said, you know, we will guarantee freedom of worship and ritual on the holiday of Ramadan. To which sulan manmas, with the brilliant palestinian, israeli journalist said, Mister prime minister, Ramadan is not a holiday. Which was a delightful way of sticking it to him. Now, Benger is continuing to rant. I don't think you will have control over the area around the mount, but he'll be in charge of east Jerusalem. Now, is, is Ben gear going to use this as a pretext to bring, use this to bring down the coalition? This will not bring down the coalition.
If Benjir decides he wants to bring down the coalition, this will be the pretext or will be a possible pretext.
Now, having said all that, things are better than we could have expected just a few days ago, but you could also have a situation where everybody does everything right and there still will be an explosion. And it's quite possible that a regional war will blow up over something that didn't happen, over a rumor, an unbased rumor and with a lot of people beating tribal drums. That's not impossible. And the major variable is, will there be an active war in Gaza during Ramadan?
And the answer is, at the moment it looks better than we thought, but the major thing of ending the war is still unresolved.
[00:21:41] Speaker B: Right? And it doesn't look like anything's going to be resolved in a couple days. But let's put it this way, it.
[00:21:48] Speaker A: Doesn'T look that way.
And there are a lot of indications that it can't take place. On the other hand, if there were to be a ceasefire by Ramadan, things would also look the way they are now. It's part of the brinksmanship. I tend to think that this is not brinksmanship, but the fact that we are where we are is not entirely conclusive. It's an indication. We have to assume that we will be, at least in the first several days of Ramadan, we will be without a ceasefire.
[00:22:21] Speaker B: In the past, Ramadan has been a time where everybody's expecting tension and expecting violence, and there has been violence that's broken out during the holiday, right before the holiday sometimes. It's also in conjunction with Jerusalem Day, so it's a little bit of an overlap. But with Hamas actually calling their operation al Aqsa Flood, do we expect that Hamas is going to use this as an opportunity? Assuming Palestinians from the West bank are not going to be allowed in to get to the Temple Mount, if it's.
[00:23:03] Speaker A: Up to the army, they will be. The army has said we will allow access. We will create a mechanism which will allow that to happen.
The army and the Shabbat are in favor of maximal access, including to people in the West bank.
[00:23:23] Speaker B: Of course, that creates a danger with possible Hamas affiliates. That will be.
[00:23:29] Speaker A: The army says the danger of closing it off is greater than the danger of allowing secured access.
It's all a wager here.
[00:23:41] Speaker B: Now.
[00:23:44] Speaker A: Ramadan's reputation for being an incendiary event is rather new, and there is nothing in the nature of the month of Ramadan that is inherently violent. Precisely the opposite.
But I guess you're correct. It's the overlap. In the last two years, we had Ramadan, Passover, and Easter simultaneously. The lord's sense of humor having played games with us.
[00:24:13] Speaker B: Right? Yeah.
[00:24:16] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And it went relatively well. The last two years was not the year before.
[00:24:25] Speaker B: Right.
[00:24:26] Speaker A: We are going to be, as we go through the calendar, we'll have Ramadan and Easter at the end, Passover, Jerusalem day, Shabbat. And each one of these is sort of a pyromaniacs fest. They all come out of the woodwork.
This is the busy season on the issue of al Aqsa temple mountain.
[00:24:55] Speaker B: Adele. So the issue, of course, with access now with Ramadan, and up till now, as far as I know, many Palestinians are still, if not all able, they're not allowed in. I mean, I know of people whose permits haven't been issued. I don't know if that's overall, many Israelis are still at a point where October 7 is very fresh in their minds, and they don't want Israel to maintain the status quo when Hamas didn't, when Hamas completely reached the status quo on October 7 and are saying this is part of their. I don't want to use the word bargaining chip, but it's part of their chip to use to say, get our hostages out.
[00:25:46] Speaker A: I disagree with your appraisal of israeli society. Yes, there's a lust for revenge and among some a bloodlust. And there is very little sympathy of Israelis for Palestinians and palestinian suffering.
Israeli society is much more united than it was before the war. Having said all that, I think that we have more anger, contempt, and even hatred of the messianic temple mount settler types than we've had ever. You dragged us into this. Our troops were watching over your crazy settlers instead of protecting the borders. It's not the families of the hostages who are blocking humanitarian aids. It is the messianic settler types. Don't drag us into this. So I don't believe that Israelis are concerned about the protection of religious rights of muslim Palestinians under Ramadan. But most Israelis don't mess with this and certainly would not support changing the status quo. There was a broad consensus in support of the status quo in the past. Those who opposed it were a lunatic fringe. Over the years, they became a fringe, and now they have gone mainstream in the ideological right. It's an indication that in Israel, the unthinkable has become thinkable and unthinkable became possible. The needle has moved. But a large majority of Israelis support maintaining the status quo. And look at Ben Gear's antics with concern and revulsion.
[00:27:49] Speaker B: Why is it important for Israel to maintain a status quo when Hamas does not want to at all?
[00:27:57] Speaker A: First of all, do you want the Hamas to dictate relations between Israelis and Palestinians? There's a distinction between the palestinian people and the. Even though there's a major overlap, but.
[00:28:08] Speaker B: They'Re sort of dictating now the circumstances on the ground.
[00:28:13] Speaker A: And I believe that it was a major mistake by both Israel and the Palestinian Authority to cede the high ground people. And we ceded the high ground by offering no alternative except the kinds of aberrations, the abominations that they carried out. Having said that, it was long a consensus in Israel that the wisest decision made by Israel after 1967 was the status quo made by Moshe Dayana in 1967, where the thinking was that Israel, the legitimacy of israeli claims to Jerusalem depends on our being worthy trustees of the sacred sites of other people. That is where we derive our legitimacy from. And we have to treat those sites respectively and with a great deal of self restraint, and we have to recognize the autonomy of religious authorities.
That's not because we're nice. It's because we are acting in an informed self interest that has eroded over time. Now the Temple Mount movement and their fellow travelers consider the decision by Dayan to create the status quo in 1967 as the biggest mistake made made by Israel since 1948. And they think about it a lot. They thought a lot before this government. And there are many in this core of ideological right who see the raison d'etre of this right wing Netanyahu government to amend the colossal mistake of 1967 and to do away with the status quo, which means it's a centerpiece for the ideological right. There is a broad consensus of Israel and unanimity in the security community that that would be disastrous for Israel.
[00:30:23] Speaker B: A big thank you to Daniel Seideman for sharing his perspective on these important issues surrounding Ramadan. From the history to the modern day politics, this conversation was chock full of nuggets. So as we enter the month of Ramadan, there's still war going on, and yet many holidays are approaching this spring for both.
The Muslims will celebrate the Eid at the end of Ramadan. Also, the Jews have two holidays during this time and the Christians have several holidays, and this makes for an even more volatile mix than usual. So I created a free holiday guide for this spring 2024. In it you will get the dates of all of the major religions holidays and an explanation about the separate Easter celebrations of the christian churches and why they are on different dates. I'll add a link in the show notes, and please take the time to subscribe to this podcast and leave a review. This will help me get the word out to many more curious souls such as yourself.
And until next time, this is the inside scoop. Jerusalem.
