Episode Transcript
[00:00:03] Speaker A: Here's the thing. I don't think we are dealing with an if question. The Islamic Republic will go regardless of outcome of this military operation, this war, regardless of what the United States and Israel decide tomorrow or the day after how to continue this operation. The Iranian people have had enough of the Islamic Republic.
[00:00:32] Speaker B: Foreign.
The research director at the National Union for Democracy in Iran, Khosrow. It's great to have you here. Thank you very much.
[00:00:46] Speaker A: Thanks for having me. It's a pleasure.
[00:00:49] Speaker B: Yeah, we met a while ago on somebody else's podcast, so I was interested to speak. It feels like years ago, but the war's only been about 20 days.
And so it's been a while. But I was very interested to further pick your brain and really understand what you know, what's going on in Iran and what you know.
And especially in the past few days, we've had some dramatic events going on in Iran. There have been a couple of targeted assassinations of what appear to be key leaders. I mean, the, the. One of. One of the.
Maybe the second in command, I guess. But I, I want to ask from your perspective, what does that actually mean?
I know that these were key leaders, but are they replaceable or is this something that really shakes the regime?
[00:01:49] Speaker A: So thanks for having me.
As you mentioned, a lot has happened since we last talked and it actually feels that it's more than a year ago since then.
So much, so much has happened that it's mind boggling. The other day I was talking with a friend who, like me, had dedicated his life to fighting the Islamic Republic and studying it. Both of us have been working on the file about the Supreme Leader for years. I have been studying that man for literally all my life. I have listened to every speech by him multiple times. I have written too many articles about that guy, and he's no longer there.
He has turned into red mist.
There wasn't even a body that they can bury, apparently.
[00:02:36] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:02:37] Speaker A: Or there has been no evidence of a body remaining of him after being taken out in that operation.
But he's gone. He's out of the picture. Absolutely.
And it's insane.
[00:02:54] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:02:54] Speaker A: For many Iran watchers who have spent years. I did it for 17 years.
Others have been on the file for way more than that. We are walking in a new territory.
What? Back to you, Alila.
The Islamic Republic's security chief, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council was killed in a targeted killing by Israel the other day.
It's one of the most escalations in this military operation until that exact moment, every individual that had been eliminated by Israel or the United States States. They either came from the military side or were limited to people like Khamenei himself. We had not seen targeting of security operatives of the regime, specifically those who try to navigate a narrow line between political leadership and security leadership. His removal signaled a significant escalation in targeting of the Islamic Republic. But this man, who he was in itself is very important.
He have been literally, he has served in literally every key position in the Islamic Republic structure. He has run the state tv. He has been a parliament speaker for years. And more important than all of these is that during the 12 Day wars, when Supreme Leader Khamenei was hiding in a bunker and the regime was rattling, didn't know how to keep itself together, Lauri Janu stepped in. Suddenly someone who had been shunned by the core of the establishment was brought back in into the game. He stepped in, stabilized the regime and allowed it to survive the 12 day war. His role was not limited to just being a figurehead, to producing talking points to represent continuation of the regime. While the Supreme Leader was hiding, he was among the few, handful, handful of individuals who came from the security background, stepped in and took control, absolute control. The other person that has survived so far and was his counterpoint is the Parliament's current Speaker, Mohammad Khalib.
These two were the two key power centers outside the supreme leader since the 12 day war. Kali Baf is still surviving. He comes from the IRGC background. He has control over a specific faction of the irgc. Lauri Johnny represented the so called moderate or reformist faction. It also includes President Hassan Rouhani, President Khatami. The type of individuals that sell themselves as rational actors, people who can make a deal with the world and can contain the Islamic Republic, but they have no intention to actually changing the regime. But always are the facelifted version of the regime presentable, smiling, acceptable for signing a deal. But behind the scenes, the same terrorist doctrine, the same Islamist approach, the same messianic approach to statesmanship. So his removal has literally collapsed a whole network.
Many more should be taken out in that network for the, for it to, to become actually dysfunctional and lead to collapse. But this was a significant signal to the regime that if you accept these type of appointments, if you accept holding the reins of this regime, you are a legitimate legal target in this war and you are going to be taken out in a surgical operation.
[00:07:05] Speaker B: Wow. Okay. So I need you to help me understand when you say he came from a different background and you say security, so so. But not irgc.
[00:07:17] Speaker A: So he always treaded a fine line. He and his brothers have been embedded across the clerical establishment in Iran, from the judiciary to the IRGC to the Intelligence ministry. They have always embedded themselves in all of these pockets of force and control.
But he was never directly an IRGC chief himself. He never led a wing of the irgc. He never was appointed as, let's say, the Minister of Intelligence. But he was constantly in the central circle of the intelligence work of the Islamic Republic. The same goes with President Hassan Rouhani. He always have been in the central circle that shares the intelligence, manipulates the population, and manipulates the world. But he never was an IRGC commander officially himself. He never run the Intelligence Ministry, but was at the center.
[00:08:20] Speaker B: Okay, okay. Now people are saying, I've heard some. Some voices saying, oh, he was moderate. Like, we. We want a moderate in power. Because if. If a deal needs to be made or if there needs to be somebody that will be rational or compromising, that he would have. Would have been the one. What do you think of that?
[00:08:43] Speaker A: In December and early January, millions of Iranians took to the streets in Iran. Larry, Johnny was the architect of the mass killing that happened there. He was the one who led that whole crackdown. Does that sound rational? We have. I mean, anyone who has watched the footage from that crackdown, it's insane.
I have worked on war crimes. I have investigated war crimes in Syria committed by Palestinian groups and the Islamic Republic. And the things that we saw during the December and January crackdown, it was beyond that. In Syria, they were using barrel bombs. They were using, literally explosives to kill people en masse.
In Iran, they used bullets, direct bullets, with security forces being ordered to shut individuals, and tens of thousands were killed. We have seen bodies of infants hit by bullets. We have seen faces demolished with shotgun shots. We have seen.
There are testimonies that two nurses were raped after they had helped injured protesters as a warning to the rest of the medical staff that this is the price of helping protesters.
Does that sound rational? Does that sound moderate?
A statesman that is willing to architect such a brutal crackdown, such mass killing, such atrocity? What would he be willing to do to force the world into submission to the will of the Islamic Republic? We already have seen what they are doing. They are using cluster bombs against Israeli civilians. They are hitting literally every neighbor of Iran.
I have lost count, But I think 12 countries have been hit by the Islamic Republic, and it's not military targets. The regime is saying that we are just hitting US and Israeli targets Hotels and airports and ports are being hit by the regiment.
They are acting like a madman, ideologically driven madman that is going after everyone, signaling that I'm so crazy that you only have one option. You either kill all of us or you're going to back down. Fortunately, we have President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu who leading this war effort. They don't have an appetite for bullies, so they are not backing down.
[00:11:21] Speaker B: Yeah, it's so interesting to hear all the different opinions associated with this war because there are Israelis who are actually opposed to the war despite the fact that they are opposed to the regime.
And yet there are Israelis who are very much for the war because they understand the existential threat that the regime poses also to Israel through its proxies and of course, its very, very statement, you know, you know, death to America, death to Israel.
But I want to ask you now about Mosh.
You said you studied the father and then you didn't really get to put that to research, the research to good use because that was it in the first few hours of the war. He was killed, but now they're talking about his son replacing him. What can you tell us about him?
[00:12:11] Speaker A: Let me just talk about one point that you made. I want to address my brothers and sisters in Israel.
You have been on the front line of the fight against the Islamic Republic by our side. You have bled by our side. You have stood by our side when no one else did.
We have been able to turn our back towards you during this five decade ordeal with us never fearing that we are going to be stabbed in the back.
We are two nations on the face of the earth, the only two nations on the face of the earth that can claim a biblical tie.
We are going to rebuild that. The Islamic Republic will go regardless of the outcome of this war.
Our tie, our bound is eternal. It's going to last. We are the two oldest civilizations in the whole Middle East.
Israel is free. Israel has a democracy. Iran will rise again. Iran will be a democracy again. And we are going to be the allies that will reshape the Middle east into a better, safer place that everyone can live in prosperity. The Islamic Republic is the last impediment to that dream to come true. But that dream is not too far. We are going to make it happen.
And I was supposed to be in Israel a week before the war started.
Complications with my return ticket to the United States led to me being stuck here.
[00:13:45] Speaker B: Oh, well, you would have been stuck here otherwise.
[00:13:48] Speaker A: I would have loved to be with my brothers and sisters. On the front line for humanity.
I love all of you who are going through this ordeal, braving life on the front line of human civilization.
And it's going to be one of the greatest regrets of my life that I was not able to be there with you during this time.
[00:14:13] Speaker B: You are on a different front line, though. You're, you know, out there with it, with information that you have spent years cultivating. So. So you're. You're. You are exactly where God wants you to be, for sure.
[00:14:28] Speaker A: That's my only solace.
[00:14:30] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:14:30] Speaker A: Hashem has a plan for all of us.
But back to your actual question. Sorry for hijacking the conversation.
[00:14:37] Speaker B: It's okay. It's okay.
[00:14:40] Speaker A: So Khamenei dies. His impotent son, this cleric, who has the charisma of a boiled potato, is named as the Supreme Leader. The guy. There is only a single video of him talking. And in that video, he was forced to ditch his classes at the Qom seminary to resign from them. And he was forced to record that video on a phone.
The son of the Supreme Leader cannot. I am just a research director at an ngo. I have a studio. I have a professional camera in front of me. The son of the Supreme Leader, how far should he have been shone by the Father to have to record his resignation message on a cell phone?
So here's the background story.
[00:15:30] Speaker B: Okay?
[00:15:31] Speaker A: During the Iran Iraq War, Mushtaba and his brother joins the war effort. They were dispatched to the front line with a specific battalion within the irgc, the Habib Battalion.
Habib battalion included multiple other individuals, including Hossein Ta' Ib and others. All of the individuals that came out of that war. And that specific Battalion built the IRGC's intelligence apparatus. Hossein Ta' Ib ended up being the chief of IRGC intelligence organization himself. And for a long, long period of time, he was the most scared man in Iran. Not the Supreme Leader, but Hossein Ta' Ib himself. He was the brutal mastermind of crackdowns, tortures, all of it.
Export of terrorism. Name it, he was involved with all of it.
And during all this time, he was positioning Mujtabo as his own personal puppet that can become the next Supreme Leader when Khamenei dies.
That plan was extensive.
They pictured Mushabo as charismatic. They planted stories in international media as the sun behind the abaya of the leader who is pulling the strings from the shadows, pushing stories inside the country about how conniving Mushaba was. But when you actually look at this man, his public presence, what he has achieved has been nothing. He is a total Nepo baby who has never held any political office, who has done nothing with his life other than being his dad's son and also Hussein Ta' Eb's puppet. At some point this push by Hossein Taeb became too aggressive to a degree that Khamenei was frustrated and sacked Hussein Ta'. B. The narrative that was planted in New York Times for justifying this sacking was that Hossein Ta' Ib was sacked because there were too many security breaches and Khamenei was angry over that. Since when in Islamic Republic someone is being sacked for incompetence? I have covered that file for years. I have lived in Iran for three decades. I have never seen a single case of someone being fired for incompetence.
That's absolute nonsense. Hussein Ta' Ib was removed because he overplayed his hand and pushed Mushtaba too hard. Khamenei killed that.
[00:18:17] Speaker B: Why wouldn't the father want the son to take his place? It's usually what they want.
[00:18:23] Speaker A: So here it gets more, more interesting. According to intelligence that I have received from a well placed source inside the country, Khamenei in his will actually have refused, had refused that Mujtaba becomes the next supreme leader. The public arguments that he had put in writing, what was that? He doesn't want an image of hereditary system them in the Islamic Republic. But the actual reasoning is that Khamenei had one child and it was the Islamic Republic. He had one heritage, it was the Islamic Republic. We are talking about a man who could have made a deal with the United States, made some actual concessions, gave up the nuclear program and lived. He refused to do that. And he was willing to die for the Islamic Republic. He did. He wanted to become a martyr for this regime, a regime that he had tied all his existence to.
He was not living a lavish life. He wasn't like Saddam or Gazafi, living in a palace with gold all over the place.
His whole game revolved around power, expanding the Islamic Republic and making it into his Shia empire. And he succeeded to great extent. We are talking about a psychopath, a sociopath who was very conniving, who was very calculating and achieved almost every goal that he set out in life to achieve. He became the supreme leader of the first Shia empire, an actual Shia empire, ideologically Shia empire that was controlling large swathes of land outside Iran's territory. He was not willing to give all of that to an impotent child who would destroy it in a Blink.
[00:20:29] Speaker B: So you did a lot of. You said you, you researched this man and you, you knew who did he want to replace him then?
[00:20:37] Speaker A: That's the issue. He didn't calculate that part.
He didn't want to name an heir apparent because the last time the first supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the regime, had an heir apparent, it was Ayatollah Mun Taziri. He was an equal to him in terms of theology, education.
He was an equal to Khomeini in large extent, at least in, in terms of positioning in the society, he was as respected as him. And when in 80s Khomeini unleashed mass killing of political prisoners in jail, Montazer opposed it and he was put under house arrest. And for putting him under house arrest, an actual urban war happened in the city that he lived.
A faction within the IRGC that were made up of followers of Ayatollah Muntazeri took to the streets armed and fought another faction that was sent by the central government to arrest the guy, put him under house arrest. And he lived in Iran under the Islamic Republic until he died of natural causes.
He was so powerful in face of, of the clerical establishment that they couldn't even dare kill him. A regime that had killed thousands of political prisoners didn't dare touch the man. Khamenei had learned the lesson from the Montazeri episode. If you name someone as your heir, you're giving them a share of your power.
And Khamenei's whole game revolved around centralizing power, making everyone fight with everyone, and everyone distrusts everyone. Just look at the regime's security apparatus. We have the Ministry of Intelligence, then we have the IRGC Intelligence Organization. They are absolutely parallel and they are paranoidly watching each other constantly. It's by design.
[00:22:51] Speaker B: Wow, that is so interesting. And I want to go back to that. I just want to ask you, I want to.
I'm going to go back to something else first because you said he's, he wasn't living a lavish lifestyle. Now there's reports out there that the Khamenei family is. They're billionaires, that they have property in, you know, in London, maybe in other places, but. So where is the money? If they're living just, you know, a humble lifestyle, where's the money?
[00:23:23] Speaker A: Money is controlled. For Khamenei himself, money didn't translate into wearing silk. It translated into power all the money that he had accumulated over the years. There is this fascinating, really in depth report the assets of Ayatollah released by Reuters. It goes in depth into Bunyad's foundations that Khamenei himself directly controlled. And this report is dated, but still it reveals how he operated in terms of economy.
It's From I think 10, 12 years ago, how he embedded himself in the economy to control all factions of the society.
And he has accumulated, had it. See, I even forget to use past tense. For him, he had accumulated wealth for himself. He arms for money laundering, to send money outside the country under the auspices of knowledge based economy and startups and tech firms and youth empowerment inside the country. They have been doing all of that under Khamenei's oversight. The network of wealth that he has built, it wasn't for him to wear more beautiful clothes or get gold watches or designer bags. It was for him to exert control over the society.
For him, wealth was a means to an end. In itself, it was nothing.
[00:25:03] Speaker B: Wow, that's unbelievable. And do you have any insight into what his surviving children do with the wealth? Like will they inherit it? Do they live lavish lifestyles or do they have the same beliefs as the father?
[00:25:19] Speaker A: Here's the thing. There is a term in Persian for these type of children. They are called children of the significance, let's translate it. Children born to the elites of the Islamic Republic. While the regime itself talks about austerity and simple life and promotion of Sharia law. Don't drink, don't party. Cover yourself up if you're a woman.
All of them, without an exception, they party, they drink, they get high in the best clubs in the West.
Lauri Johnny was killed the other day. One of his nephews have been filmed in London partying.
With whose money? With the Iranian people's money.
[00:26:10] Speaker B: Wow.
[00:26:10] Speaker A: All of them have been living lavish lives under the abaya of the Supreme Leader. They are hiding behind that thin sheet of cloth, pilfering the world of a nation, enjoying it lavishly.
There are videos of their parties in Iran. There is a neighborhood in near Tehran, they call it Busty Hills, as in reference to the actual Busty Hills, the mansions that they have built there in, in themselves, all of them. 1. The prices are not in the Iranian national currency. They are priced in dollars, because who wants to count those many zeros for a mansion's house price?
But then videos come out of these mansions, of the pool parties of lollipops and shamkhanis and the rest of them, their children, how they are enjoying their life.
Riding in Maseratis, drinking the best brands of champagne and rolling in designer clothes.
[00:27:16] Speaker B: Unbelievable.
Wow. I can't say that I have that I knew that. So. Wow. It's unbelievable.
All right. Going back to the government structure because I, I've been hearing a lot. There's this specific analyst, she's a former Mossad official and she's been interviewed a lot on, on the Israeli stations. And also I've attended some briefings that she's been at and she says that, that the regime is built in such a way that it reinvents itself. And so you were talking about how there's the separate branches and they're, they're paranoid of each other. She seemed to also say, what I understood from what she was saying is that even if a person is killed, there is a replacement system and somebody keeps moving to the front. And she also mentioned the numbers and maybe you could. I'm Sorry, I'm asking three questions in one.
That there's about 1 million IRGC operatives, including Basij.
And that is such a big number.
So it just, it just seems like it's such a vast and, and well built structure that it would be very difficult to take out at the current rate of what's happening now with, with Israel and the US.
[00:28:45] Speaker A: So let's go through it in layers as well.
First, in terms of the replacement system, there is this operation that Israel, the IDF carried out, I think a couple of decades ago called Operation Picking Animals, Picking Bread, Flowers. And it happened after one of the intifadas. Don't question me about the exact date. Too much is happening.
[00:29:14] Speaker B: I'll have to look it up.
[00:29:15] Speaker A: Yeah, I can send you excerpts about it as well.
So they launched this operation, starting hitting the top of the terrorist Palestinian organizations and removing leadership constantly. And one of the officers involved with that operation, he says that one day I stepped in the interrogation room to interrogate the leader at the urban city leader of that organization.
And I face and 19 year old and I was like, the operation is working.
We have removed so many people out of this system that they have to assign a 19 year old as the leader.
[00:30:00] Speaker B: Oh, okay.
[00:30:01] Speaker A: There is another argument.
The Weapons Development Arm, one of the weapons development arms of idf. It argues that you have a vehicle that is rushing you and you start shooting at this vehicle. The first bullet hits the windshield. The second hits a lamp, the turret hits the carburetor. The fourth hits a tire. If you keep hitting again and again and again, you will eventually hit a part in that car that will make it stop.
Every car carries some spare parts. Let's say you have hit a tire. They get out, replace the tire. How many extra tires you can have in a passenger vehicle? 1, 2, 3. At some point, having extras will reduce the mobility of that whole system. You cannot turn a personal vehicle, a whole government system into a truck carrying spares. That's the same with the Islamic Republic.
That's point one. Point two. It's I, I'm fascinated with the whole targeted killings operations. It has been one of the most effective tools in the foreign policy toolbox for the world for containing rogue states. Look at just how effective it was about containing the Islamic Republic's nuclear program over the years.
But that's for actual experts in that to talk about more and with better knowledge. But anyway, about the Islamic Republic. Yes, there, there is a replacement system.
But what is the quality of the replacements when you take out Ali Khamenei? He's replaced by his impotent son Mushtaba, who doesn't have his reins, who doesn't have his system memory.
Khamene was not only powerful because he was a good orator or had been long at this game, he had accumulated four, five decades of experience under the Islamic Republic. He knew the system inside out. He knew every actor. He knew how to manipulate each of them, what buttons he should push to deliver a specific result. Mushaba doesn't have that. Any other candidates in the circle of senior clerics within the Islamic Republic doesn't have that. Khamenei was irreplaceable. Same goes with someone like Ali Larijani. Yes, they are going to appoint someone new to that position. If that new person survives 24 hours before IDF takes him out, he is not going to be as competent, as knowledgeable, as tried and as trusted as Lari Jani was. Same goes with each cycle which each circle of the Islamic Republic. When you remove the central part, yes, another person from the outskirts will replace him. But it's not going to be the same system. And gradually when you remove enough individuals from the system, them, it will collapse. Now we go to your third question about the number of people involved with the irgc.
So multiple things are happening at the same time. We are seeing a mowing at the top, the leadership of the Islamic Republic being hit. But it's not. The military operation is not limited there. The Basij militia, that is the oppressive arm of the Islamic Republic is being hit constantly by IDF drone strikes.
Last week we received intelligence that at least 100 members of Basij militia were killed on the streets across Iran. The number has increased to 300 already. That's one side of it.
And with this type of force, we are talking about a militia that most members of it are not there because they are ideologically driven.
They are there because having a life, having access to wealth is tied to working for this system, to be part of this system.
So when they see the increased cost, they are not showing up.
A lot of them have stopped.
And it's not only limited to that. A lot of these militiamen, even when they show up, where are they going to show up to? The Basij militia bases have already been taken out.
They have started to set up checkpoints across major cities. Those checkpoints have been taken out as well. They moved the checkpoints under bridges to be safe from drone strikes. Those checkpoints were also taken out.
So a lot of them don't have even a place to show up to. And even when they do, even when they do, the regime doesn't have the capacity to give them money, food and water.
A lot of them are sleeping hungry on the streets.
So that's bottom line of the regime. The majority of the forces that are just there for an easy, hefty paycheck, for access to good loans, low interest loans, for access to free housing, for access to higher education, without the entrance exam, they calculate, is it worth it to risk my life for a regime that might fall in a couple of days or weeks or months?
That calculation is constantly. The cost is increasing and the benefit is nosediving.
So they are not showing up in the middle ranks again. The same thing is happening with the IRGC commanders. A lot of military bases right now, the commanders have deserted their posts. The soldiers who are stationed there, a large portion of them are draftees, are sleeping in desert because they know that the base can be hit during the night. So they sleep in the desert and return to the base during the day.
But without actual command there. How effective is that?
[00:36:32] Speaker B: Right. I actually did an article about that, and now it feels so old. And maybe it was on the seventh day of the war or something like that, maybe a little bit longer. But that about defections, and they were saying that the supplies aren't getting to these people. So, you know, they're getting demoralized. A lot of people are ditching their phones and, you know, playing dead.
I mean, this is what they said based on the their sourcing. So it's interesting. So are you hearing more or less the same thing?
[00:37:02] Speaker A: Absolutely.
They are extremely scared. Actual defections are happening from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic.
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the leader of opposition, has launched the whole platform for bringing in these defectors to get them whetted. If you haven't killed Iranians, if you don't have blood on your hands, you are going to be part of liberated Iran's armed forces. We don't want a whole debatification process. We have seen how that goes. We want all of these individuals, if they have not committed crimes against humanity, if they have not killed Iranians, to be reintegrated, brought in, build Iran, come to the side of the people. And it's happening. We are getting messages, videos of soldiers removing the batches of the Islamic Republic and saluting Iran's actual true national flag, the lion and sun.
There are videos of these things out there.
[00:38:03] Speaker B: Wow, okay.
[00:38:05] Speaker A: And these are public.
[00:38:07] Speaker B: Okay, well, you know, I want to talk about that too because as, as usual lately in the way the world and the media goes, I feel like it's just more and more polarized every time there's a new, new conflict. There's no room for, for nuance and opinion. And you know, I, I am trying my best to source material from a place that I don't have any background and I don't have the language.
So we're hearing people, obviously we're hearing a lot of what you're saying, that there's defections and that people were cheering. I've seen the videos of people cheering from their balconies, you know, with the, for the strikes, for the Israeli and American strikes. But at the same time, we're also hearing people downplaying that and, and saying that they're, that, that Iran, Iranians are upset about what's happening and that they don't want this foreign interference. And so how can people really know what's going on over there? And obviously your representing the opposition to the regime.
So how can we really know what is going on in a country that the west doesn't really understand and we haven't seen into it for the past 47 years.
[00:39:28] Speaker A: Listen to the Iranian voices.
Yes, I am part of the opposition to the Islamic Republic, but who in their sane mind wouldn't be in opposition to this regime?
Since the inception of this regime, Iranians have been fighting it. In 1979, in March, women took to the streets of Tehran and many other cities opposing the imposition of the Sharia law and the mandatory hijab. They were pushed back. Then we have the massacre of leftist activists in 80s. Then we had the student protests in 1909. Then we had the 2009 green movement. Then we had the economic protests. Of 2016, 17, 18, 19.
Then we had the Woman Life Freedom movement. Then we had the recent December and January uprising. And these are just the major ones. I'm counting the protest movements that had at least hundreds of Iranians were killed, during which.
I'm not counting the smaller ones. We are dealing with a population that over the decades have demonstrated that it doesn't want. The Islamic Republic has been fighting an uphill battle against this regime. And finally, it is receiving a chance, a fighting chance against this regime. The battlefield is not level yet. It's still going to be an uphill battle because we are dealing with an Islamist fascist state. State which is armed to the thief.
But it's way easier to overthrow the Islamic Republic today compared to yesterday, even.
[00:41:11] Speaker B: Yeah. Can you give us numbers or percentages? Because again, if I see a protest of a couple hundred people.
What?
Or a couple thousand, and of course, I don't know that we get accurate numbers either.
So what are the numbers? Do you know the numbers? Like, of how many people go out and protest? What's the percent?
There's no polls coming out of Iran who's in favor of the government, who's not. So how can we know?
[00:41:40] Speaker A: On multiple things. One, the easiest parts, the more recent one. On January 8th and 9th, after a call was issued by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, according to intelligence that we have received from reliable sources, millions of Iranians were on the street chanting this man's name. It was very clear who they were, who they came out, who were they were supporting. And that was unprecedented.
You can check every protest cycle before it. I have been directly involved with every cycle since 1999, when I was nine years old and my dad thought it's a good idea to take his son to a student uprising.
I have seen it firsthand.
This was unprecedented. Millions of people taking to the streets with a clear chant, chanting the name of a man. That represents an absolute break from the Islamic Republic has never been part of this regime. That's one element to this story.
But you want actual numbers, more numbers. Look at the statistics that have been leaked from inside the Islamic Republic security apparatus over the years.
I will send you the exact numbers because they are escaping me right now. But the majority of Iranians, according to a leak from within the regime itself, and these statistics are published by BBC Persian, no friend of the Iranian opposition indicates that the majority of Iranians want an absolute separation of religion from state. That's the core pillar of the Islamic Republic. The majority of Iranians don't want a religious State don't want an Islamic Republic. You can look at the statistics about how empty mosques are in Iran. These are all reported publicly based on data from inside the Islamic Republic.
For proving our point as the opposition to the Islamic Republic, we don't need to resort to rhetoric. There is actual evidence that we have acquired outside the regime itself that shows the majority of the Iranian population doesn't want this regime, doesn't support this regime.
With every cycle on the streets, they have proven this with their blood. But actual numbers from within the regime also reinforces that image.
[00:44:15] Speaker B: Okay, all right, good. Yeah, it's just good to be aware and also, you know, not having sources for people who are outside of a very tightly held country that doesn't reveal information, you know, it's hard for us to assess.
And so I'm trying to get as broad a number of sources as possible and just to hear and to confirm and so thank you.
[00:44:42] Speaker A: Oh, absolutely.
Let me just add one layer to it. Before moving to the United States, I worked for BBC Monitoring for two years.
BBC Monitoring is a division within the World Service, was established before, I think the Second World War. Its mission has always been watching hostile environments that actual free media cannot operate. Usually they have a base near that hostile state that monitors everything that is coming out of these regimes from the state media to in modern age social media content.
Analyzing all of that and turning it into an absolutely neutral material that would inform the British government.
Until 2016, monitoring wasn't publicly recognized. No one knew. Even within the BBC, the majority of employees didn't knew it existed. I have worked in that side of the work as well. Yes, I'm fighting the Islamic Republic, but I can parcel factual facts for you as well.
So after this interview I'm, I will send you some documents and some statistics.
[00:46:01] Speaker B: Awesome. No, I appreciate it, thank you. It's good for people to know because also I'm always challenged, you know, by also the people who are reading my work or listening to my broadcast and, and I am very careful about what I, what I source. And I live in a region where there's at least two languages and now we're throwing in a third. And so it's very hard to, to get to the bottom of, of a new system with a new language. So thank you.
[00:46:31] Speaker A: Of course.
[00:46:33] Speaker B: So let's talk about the future because I, you know, there, there we've heard Reza Pahlavi, we've heard the name. We know there's other opposition groups at work. We know also in the, it feels like a year ago, but Maybe just two weeks ago they were talking about that the, the Kurdish army is poised to come in and to create, you know, to start the uprising or sport anyway, that seems to have faded from the headlines. So there's different options and I'm sure that many people are making some kind of plan here.
So can you tell us what are.
How does this play out? Let's say if there is going to be regime change. Is there going to be regime change? When? If so, and how does it play out?
[00:47:26] Speaker A: Here's the thing. I don't think we are dealing with an if question. The Islamic Republic will go regardless of outcome of this military operation, this war, regardless of what the United States and Israel decide tomorrow or the day after how to continue this operation. The Iranian people have had enough of the Islamic Republic. We have been marching against this regime. We are going to keep marching. We are talking about a population, any of anyone who has ever dealt with Iranians, you know, that we love to have a simple, happy life, get good food, enjoy life, spend time with our family. And the Islamic Republic has been an enemy of life for the past five decades and it's going to be reduced to a blip in our long, long history. It's going to be erased sooner, hopefully.
But that's the if part of the question. I believe that this regime is going to go soon.
With a lot of friends, we are joking that next Passover, we are going to celebrate it in Tehran.
Hopefully that's going to happen too.
We always pray to celebrate Passover in Israel. This year a lot of us are praying that next Passover, maybe not this one, it will be in Tehran.
[00:48:47] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:48:48] Speaker A: So that's the timeline that I'm at least praying for.
[00:48:51] Speaker B: Are you Jewish?
[00:48:52] Speaker A: Background, converted.
[00:48:55] Speaker B: Oh, wow. I had no idea. And actually I meant to ask you that anyway, but. Okay, very interesting.
Okay. So is what you want?
[00:49:05] Speaker A: Yes.
[00:49:06] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:49:07] Speaker A: At least for next year.
[00:49:09] Speaker B: Most likely I'll be stuck here in Jerusalem for the coming one, but yeah, we'll see.
[00:49:15] Speaker A: And unfortunately, I'm stuck outside of Jerusalem and Tehran.
[00:49:20] Speaker B: Yes, yes.
[00:49:23] Speaker A: Anyway, that's the timeline that many are talking about and many are praying for
[00:49:29] Speaker B: a year or like until a year, you're saying?
[00:49:34] Speaker A: The hope is it might happen sooner even than that.
[00:49:38] Speaker B: But what's the soonest you think it could happen?
[00:49:41] Speaker A: To be honest, I don't know.
[00:49:43] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:49:43] Speaker A: No one knows. It really depends on how far and how fast the US and Israel will go with the military operation.
Yeah, that's, that's the key question. And I'm not sitting in the Situation Room with Donald Trump. So I cannot give you an informed answer on that question. I hope sooner because I miss Iran.
And I.
The other day I was asked about my dream for the future of the country, and my answer was like, it's a very humble dream. I don't dream of great things that are going to happen in Iran, but they are going to happen.
But I dream about sharing bread with my loved ones. I dream of walking in the streets of Tehran, the city that I love, where I had my first kiss, where I.
Where my father is buried, someone that I couldn't even bury.
I was outside the country when he died, and I couldn't even go back to bury him.
The dream is going back and embracing our people again to break bread with them.
We have some of the best food in the world. I know you live in Israel and you probably have tried Persian cuisine. You should try it in Tehran.
[00:51:00] Speaker B: I've actually tried it more in New York than in Israel, but, yeah, that's so funny.
So I was gonna ask you, I mean, I, I do want to ask you, like, what your background is, like, what's your story? Because I. You were born there and what were the circumstances that made you leave?
[00:51:19] Speaker A: I was born in 1990. Both my parents were activists.
My father was a political prisoner before and after the revolution.
He was jailed for four years after the revolution, before the revolution, when he was 18 or 19 year old, he was arrested for possessing Marxist material and was jailed for six months.
But a year before the revolution, when the Shah issued a statement saying that I have heard the voice of your revolution, and let's not give the reins of this nation to these Islamists, my father was like, yep, I'm a leftist, but I would rather walk with Shah than Ayatollah Khomeini. But the train of history had left this station and no one listened either to Shah and who was my father compared to him, with a small platform.
So after the revolution, he continued fighting the Islamic Republic as well, was jailed for it, and saw things that I hope no one would ever see and go through. The level of torture and suffering that he endured broke him for life. He watched thousands of people, actual dreamers who had put their lives on the line for making Iran a better place, being executed summarily without proper court hearings. Some of them had their prison sentences almost done and they were taken out of the cells, put in front of firing squads or hong.
So I grew up with the stories of these brave men and women who had sacrificed their lives.
Then in 1999. We had a student uprising in Iran after the election of President Muhammad Khatami. The media space had slightly opened up and people were dreaming that maybe the Islamic Republic is going to change for better Khamenei and the regime didn't have it. They cracked down, they closed newspapers, and the students took to the streets and. And my dad took me with him to that protest. And I was 9, and I was walking next to this man who was the titan in my life, someone that I looked up to. And during this protest, the students started chanting, death to the dictator.
And my dad raised a fist to the sky trying to repeat that chant.
But the pain of all those years broke in his throat and he couldn't even chant.
So with eyes filled with tears, he looked down at me and told me, if you want, you can chant instead of me. And I started chanting, death to the dictator.
And I kept going at it. Apparently.
In 2009, I was a junior student at university. I was studying physics. I was a total STEM guy away from politics, not wanted to get involved.
But we had a fraudulent election and people were taking to the streets to protest. So I stepped in, started organizing rallies, training my peers how to stay safe when they take to the streets because I had received urban training from my parents who had training in the past, how to navigate interrogations, the streets when someone is shooting at you, and all of that.
That activity ended with me being arrested by the intelligence ministry, a couple rounds of interrogations and threats from my university being put on the watch list and all of that that comes with this type of activity. I was 19 when all of this happened. 19 or 20.
Then come. Then came the period of hiatus after the green movement, major protest movement. When it dies, everyone gets depressed. Goes back to reading and research and self reflection. I came to terms with being gay and started blogging about queer life in Iran. How I came out to my parents, my friends, translated p flagged pamphlet so other kids can actually access the information that helped me get through that self acceptance chapter.
Fortunately, I was trained enough to do all of that under a pen name, so I didn't.
[00:55:53] Speaker B: I was about to ask you. You were writing your own death sentence right there.
[00:55:57] Speaker A: Yep.
And.
And I had some interesting brush offs that I. I'm planning to come public with it soon, hopefully. But for now I would rather not talk about that chapter more in detail.
But then I was fed up with the whole diaspora activist circles working on LGBTQ issues because they were useless and corrupt and were constantly at each other's throats. So it was so disheartening that I was like, I wash my hands. I'm done with this.
And I started working as a copywriter for an advertisement agency, writing reviews and posters and banners for Dove Soap and Samsung mobile phones. I was living a comfortable life. Then I got a job as a journalist at Financial Tribune. I initially was focused on the auto industry and tech sector, but then I started fanning out, working on the regimes space program, Internet censorship. Then the 2019 protest movement happened when the regime cut the Internet for the whole nation for two weeks and killed at least 1500 people on the streets. And I was like, okay, gloves are back on and we are back to the fray of the fight against this regime.
So I secured leaks out of the judiciary and the government. I made my way to secretive IRGC missile bases with some fun, fun farce and all of that. At the same time, I was working on the Quds Force, writing about the Quds Force, the missile program, and all of it. I was having hands in literally every file that the regime would see as a crime against national security.
It ended with me being called in for interrogations by a deputy minister, this time not a random intelligence officer.
And eventually, after Covid hit Iran and I was escalating literally everything that I was doing, including I was back to doing LGBTQ research work, interviewing victims of the Islamic Republic and all of that.
And I was like, so at the end, I had material in my apartment, I was living with my parents, that if the regime came, they would have taken me. That was no question. The question was, what should I do with the material? How should we destroy? At least it's to some extent so these victims of the regime wouldn't turn into secondary victims of all this work that I was doing. What goes in the oven, what goes in the microwave, what goes down the drain? That was the protocol with my parents. We lived on the fourth floor. We had calculated how much time we would have between day ringing the doorbell and coming up.
So in 2021, I was like, okay, this is getting too choppy, and I got to get out.
So I looked for positions outside the country. I got a job with BBC monitoring, moved to Eastern Europe, where I was stationed with the service, kept doing literally all of that.
Then the Woman Life Freedom movement started in 2022, working with multiple activist networks inside the country. I was one of the main conduits of getting footage out of Iran and delivered to international media that someone at some point leaked my role in that whole operation. And the editor of an Islamic Republic tied outlet outside London, reached out to my BBC editor, telling him to tell Khosrow he should look over his shoulder when he goes out.
[00:59:58] Speaker B: Whoa.
[00:59:59] Speaker A: We run that by BBC's High Risk team. Their assessment was that I'm probably on an assassination and abduction list.
And I was like, cool.
Life achievements. What should I do? They told me to not go out of my apartment, to install an app on my phone, which if I do something, would send off an alarm to London, and also to share contacts of a trusted friend who could convey to my mother that I have been taken by the regime. And that was the end of it. I was like, very reassuring. I feel safer already.
But I kept going like that for a year, and in that Eastern Europe country until I moved to the United States for a job at Colby College, where I taught two courses on human rights and modern Iran history and all of that. I arrived there in August 2023.
Then October 7th happens, and that shattered everyone and everything. And I was stalking human rights circles that are brimming with anti Semitism.
A long, different conversation, maybe, but during that time, I met someone who has turned into my mentor, someone that's changed my life.
In August, when I arrived, I received a message from Rabbi Rachel Isaacs, the chief rabbi. Not chief rabbi, but the rabbi of the college and the town there in Maine. And she invited me to her office for a chat. And it was about food and why people here don't get spices. And if I need anything, I should go to her. And if I can cook, she knows a couple of Persian dishes.
And that was our first meeting. And then we met when I was leaving Colby, and I reached out to her and we sat down and talked about everything we had seen since October 7, how it shattered lives and souls and hearts on all fronts. How many people died out of heartache, of watching all that was happening in Israel, the pain of it.
And that moment I knew that wherever this woman goes, I will go.
If she walks into hell, I will walk behind her.
And I needed to understand where she came from.
And I started studying, and that put me on course for converting to Judaism.
[01:02:41] Speaker B: Oh, my goodness.
Wow. What was your original religion? What were you born into?
[01:02:46] Speaker A: Both my parents were vehement atheists. My dad was tortured while Quran was played, so Islam didn't have any room in our household.
At points when I was a teenager, I flirted with prehistoric Iranian religions, from Mithraism to Zoroastrian, but it wasn't a right fit for me. Then I got infatuated with Christianity because I loved Pasolini's gospel according to St. Matthew.
But that was not a fit for me either.
Then I was dating a gay man who was a Muslim. So I was like, let's read the book and see what he's up to. That wasn't the fit either.
And eventually I found Hashem and stabilized my life.
[01:03:39] Speaker B: Very interesting. And you're not the first Muslim, though. She's not Iranian, who. But she's, I think, Syrian or Lebanese, who has just recently, like a prominent, you know, influencer who is converting to Judaism. And just like, what, like, you know, since October 7th as well.
So. Very interesting. Very interesting. I. I didn't know your story. I knew your knowledge, but I didn't know your story. And I have to say, this has been fascinating. Absolutely fascinating.
[01:04:14] Speaker A: Thank you.
[01:04:15] Speaker B: I. I have.
I do have a million questions, but I'm going to ask you just one more. Just tell us about the.
[01:04:22] Speaker A: We have 15 minutes.
[01:04:24] Speaker B: Okay.
[01:04:25] Speaker A: Yes.
[01:04:27] Speaker B: Well, I wanted to. Just to tell us about the National Union for Democracy in Iran. What is your. What's your purpose? What's your goal?
[01:04:35] Speaker A: So NUFTI National Union for Democracy in Iran was established a few years ago as a counterpoint to the Islamic Republic's lobbying the west, specifically in the United States, specifically the Nayak, the National Iranian American Council, which was basically an operation set up by Jabot Zarif, the former Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic. Twenty years ago when he was at his UN job, he started establishing contacts with multiple people, he, including Iranian diaspora and stakeholders in the United States, finding funnels of money, clean money, that can sponsor this organization and turn it into the voice of the Iranian diaspora, the most powerful voice, at least at the time.
One of the outcomes of that activity was the jcpoa, the deal that Iran made the world believe is going to contain the Islamic Republic. As if a piece of paper is going to contain any fascist ever.
It has failed every time we have tried it under the sun. It's failed with the JCPOA as well. But the network was active and operating.
It still is active and operating. Their spokesperson the other day, this young woman was standing in front of the Islamic Republic's flag, waving behind her, speaking against us and Israel and why this war is illegal and criminal, why Iranians don't want it, not even hiding their affiliation to the Islamic Republic. Multiple individuals in this network have already left the United States soil because after President Trump was elected, they were scared. Scared that they are going to face Farah charges for lobbying for the Islamic Republic. Multiple reports have been published against this group for literally coordinating and editing op eds. They were writing for international media, American media, sending it to Javad Zarif and his aides to give them edits, and they implemented those edits.
There are emails between them and Zarif saying that they are Iranians and therefore they are loyal to the Islamic Republic and they want to serve the regime.
All of these are public out there.
I will send you the links to those reports.
[01:07:10] Speaker B: Wow. Okay.
[01:07:12] Speaker A: So NUFTI was established as a counterpoint to this influence. Let's not go as far as calling it espionage or whatever, as this a counterpoint to the Islamic Republic's lobbying and influence network in the United States.
But its mandate goes beyond countering these type of narratives. We also have advocated on behalf of the Iranian American population. We represent this community above all, but we also. Our core mission is echoing the voice of the people inside Iran. We are an extension of that nation that has been living under occupation by the Islamic Republic for the past five decades. We represent the hope and the dream of a free Iran in the future. You asked about what are the plans for the future right now, after all these ordeals, all the movements that I have been involved with, we finally have reached the point that we have a leader that we trust.
Reza Pahlavi is a decent man.
I recommend everyone to just watch this man, watch his messages, watch his interviews. He has a deep sense of decency.
And what we need in Iran is making Iran decent again.
We have been dealing with a bunch of thugs that have occupied my homeland for all these years, have killed and raped and tortured my nation.
And finally, we have hope in a leader that has decency, is kind, is generous, and has a very clear vision for the future of Iran. He wants a secular democracy for Iran that preserves the country's territorial integrity, grants human rights to all, and its form of governance is determined in a free and fair election.
That's it.
The diaspora is constantly criticized for being divided. We are not divided. These four principles are things that people inside the country have united around, that we outside the country have united around as well. Yes, there are still outliers. Yes, there are still naysayers. But people are coming into the tent every day. One of the jobs of nufti is building those bridges that brings everyone to that destined future, a future that all of us can either live free in Iran or at least if we are not, Iranians, can visit that country, that beautiful, rich country that has offered the world so much over the years.
From science to poetry, from love to dance, we have offered the world so much. We want to reclaim that homeland. We want to rebuild it. And there are actual plans, not just the poetry, not just the rhetoric. There are actual plans for transitional justice, specifically that I'm mentioning because it's being led by Shireen Abadi, a Nobel Peace laureate, who is taking the charge on that whole effort. There are economic plans. There are plans for international relations. The Iran that we envision in the future is going to do a 180 on everything the Islamic Republic represents. The Islamic Republic has been the bastion of antisemitism.
The Iran that we hold dear in our hearts is going to be the absolute ally, not normalizing ties, but is going to be an absolute ally to Israel.
It's going to be the pillar of stability and security in the Middle east instead of the leading sponsor of terrorism. That's the dream that we are fighting for. That's the dream that tens of thousands in Iran died for. We just want a normal life with liberty, and we are going to achieve that. When a nation rises up with determination and is molded into a singular fist in this furnace of suffering that we saw in January, nothing can break it. It might take time. What we are going to win?
[01:11:28] Speaker B: Well, we don't know what's going to happen, but we do know this. We are in d in historic days. We, we are watching history unfold before our eyes and just going to be interesting to see what is the outcome and when it happens. So thank you so much for this. This was so enlightening on so many levels. I really appreciate it and I look forward to staying in touch and getting all the info.
[01:12:00] Speaker A: Absolutely looking forward to it. And it was lovely chatting with you.
[01:12:04] Speaker B: Thank you so much.
